The Conservatives must not abandon net zero. But they must be clever about how it is achieved.

With a new leader, the Conservatives can really get to work on their strategy for winning the next election.

Sam Hall | Director

Honing strong messages and policies on climate change will be key to rebuilding the party’s electoral credibility. There is a clear political opportunity to attack Labour’s statist net zero policies. But the party must not just oppose or embrace anti-climate rhetoric.

Voters want to hear a positive, credible alternative plan to decarbonise.

Kemi Badenoch’s leadership pitch to members argued for a return to core conservative values. She was right.

Conservative principles – such as stewardship, intergenerational responsibility, and love of community – are inherently entwined with environmental protection. And conservative economic principles, rooted in free markets and free enterprise, show the most cost-efficient route to solving environmental challenges.

She is a self-declared net zero sceptic, however, and has warned that decarbonisation is increasing our dependency on China and damaging the countryside. These concerns reflect genuine challenges with how net zero is being delivered and are shared by many MPs and voters. But they are solvable with the right mix of policies.

The party would be wise to take this pragmatic approach, as it would be an electoral mistake to set itself against net zero. The new shadow cabinet should use the next couple of years to develop a distinctly conservative message and policy approach that protects future generations from environmental threats, harnesses the free market to reduce costs, and addresses the concerns of those sceptical about net zero.

To inform a new conservative narrative, CEN has worked with CT Group to understand what potential Conservative voters think about net zero. The research points to what a constructive opposition to the government’s climate policy should look like.

The electoral maths says that, in order to win a majority, the Conservative Party must build a bigger 2029 coalition than simply the combination of Conservative and Reform voters from 2024. Some Liberal Democrat and Labour 2024 voters are needed too, as well as 2019 Conservatives who stayed at home.

The party’s message on climate therefore has to resonate with a broad coalition and pass voters’ hygiene test to restore electoral credibility.

While the party will struggle to win again without to a significant extent reuniting the right, it also has to be realistic about Reform voters’ willingness to switch.

Fifty-five percent of Reform 2024 voters say they see no prospect of changing their vote, including to the Conservatives. The party would be foolish to rest their entire electoral hopes on going after these hardcore Farage fans who will likely never be swayed.

More encouragingly, however, the vast majority (86 per cent) of 2019 Tory voters who switched to the Liberal Democrats and Labour are open to changing their vote. And they are strongly supportive of climate action, with 65 per cent in favour of net zero and only 12 per cent opposed.

Among the 45 percent of Reform voters who leave the door open to switching, a plurality back climate action. Thirty-seven percent of them support net zero compared to 33 percent who oppose.

In total, 53 per cent of the public would consider voting Conservatives at the next election. A pro-environment stance can help to unite these voters. Among these ‘potential Conservatives’, there is strong net support for increasing green investment (+ 32 per cent), factoring the environment into everyday decisions (+ 13 per cent), and reaching net zero by 2050 (+ 25 per cent).

This doesn’t mean they want to go green at any cost: climate and sustainability considerations come behind affordability and independence in their priorities for energy policy. That’s why climate action has to be cost-effective and make us more secure. Conservatives must champion a balanced approach.

There is strong support for the renewable energy rollout too. It is potential Conservative voters’ top environmental priority, ahead of cleaning up rivers and recycling. Their favourite energy sources are, in order, solar, offshore wind, and nuclear. This suggests Badenoch would be wise to talk up the Conservative record in government, which harnessed private finance to bring renewables from 7 per cent of the power mix in 2010 to over 50 per cent in 2024.

The research also suggests some potential fruitful dividing lines. There is scepticism about the government’s plans to remove local residents’ ability to object to new clean energy developments. Among potential Conservatives, 37 per cent favour national government being able to override councils on nationally significant infrastructure, while 50 per cent  think local people should still have the right to object.

The research also finds the government’s inability to spend money wisely is a persuasive message, with 62 per cent of these groups agreeing that not trusting the government to make the right investments is a good argument, compared to just 13 per cent who disagree. This points to a potentially effective critique of GB Energy, Labour’s new state-owned energy company.

It is a similar story with the 2030 deadline for decarbonising the electricity grid, which many independent energy experts believe to be impossible. Most (57 per cent) potential Conservative voters support the goal, with only 14 per cent opposing. Yet a majority (53 per cent) sympathise with the argument that the goal is unachievable and unrealistic. Voters want climate ambition but it must be delivered pragmatically. The Conservatives should own this space.

None of this is to say that the Conservatives should purely pick their policy based on opinion polls, which are often contradictory. But if the party wants to win again in 2029, it needs to know the political impact of its climate policy.

Having concluded the internal debate of the leadership contest, the party must now turn outwards to face the country. It must gear its strategy towards the majority of voters open to voting Conservative, rather than the subset of Reform voters who refuse to countenance switching.

This doesn’t mean losing the focus on core conservative principles: protecting future generations and becoming energy independent should underpin our messages on climate change.

It does mean recommitting to climate action, but pursuing a distinct approach to Labour, characterised by practicality, value for money, and respect for local communities.

A positive Conservative climate policy can help the party return to power.

First published by ConservativeHome. Sam Hall is Director of CEN.